jsceip

The 8th International Seminar of Committee of Infrastructure Planning and Management, JSCE in FY2015
2015年度土木計画学研究委員会 第8回国際セミナー（通算 第117回国際セミナー）

The 5th International Seminar on Integration of Spatial Computable General Equilibrium and Transport Modeling

Program：
日時：平成27年10月15日（木），16日（金）
場所：神戸大学百年記念館六甲ホール
（地図：http://www.kobe-u.ac.jp/guid/access/rokko/rokkodai-dai2.html）

1日目：10月15日（木） Octorber 15th

10:00-11:30 Morning Lecture（■実務者向け，日本語セッション）
小池淳司（神戸大学） Atsushi Koike (Kobe University)
「交通投資のストック効果計測」
“Assessing Economic impacts of Transport Investment”(in Japanese)

13:00-13:30 開会挨拶 Opening Address
Lori Tavasszy (TNO/TU Delft)

13:30-14:30 基調講演 Keynote Lecture
Johaness Brocker (Kiel University)
“TBA”

14:50-16:20 セッション1:国際物流 (Global freight flows)
柴崎隆一（国土交通省国土技術政策総合研究所）
「海運・陸運インターモーダル輸送ネットワークにおける国際物流モデリング」
Ryuichi Shibasaki (NILIM)
“Modeling of international freight flow on worldwide intermodal network including both maritime and land shipping and its application”

Kees Ruijgrok (University of Tilburg)
「減速運航が国際物流ネットワークの最適化に及ぼす影響」
“Slow steaming and its effects on international freight network optimization”

田邊怜（東京大学　博士後期課程）
Satoshi Tanabe (University of Tokyo)
「国際交通インフラ整備の影響評価モデル：中央アジアにおける貿易と物流に着目して」
“Impact Assessment Model of International Transportation Infrastructure Development: Focusing on Trade and Freight Traffic in Central Asia”

16:40-17:40 セッション2:貿易と経済 (Trade & Economic Modeling)
瀬木俊輔（京都大学）
「カナダ・アメリカ国境における待ち時間削減の経済効果：応用一般均衡モデルと越境交通の統合」
Shunsuke Segi (Kyoto University)
“Economic Impacts of Reduced Wait Time at Canada-US Border Crossing: Integrating CGE Model and Cross-Border Transportation“

Lori Tavasszy (TNO/TU Delft)
「サプライチェーンにおける外部費用の内部化がもたらす効果について」
“Effects of internalization of external costs of supply chains”

18:00-20:00 Participants Meeting (invitation only)

2日目：10月16日（金） Octorber 16th

10:00-11:00 セッション3:ロジスティクスと交通 (Logistics and Transport Modeling)
円山 琢也（熊本大学）
「トリップ・チェイン型均衡配分モデルを用いた長期的な交通需要予測」
Takuya Maruyama (Kumamoto University)
“Long-Term Travel Forecasting using Trip-Chain-Based User Equilibrium Model”

Igor Davydenko (TNO):
「物流モデルにおけるロジスティクス・チェーン」
“Logistics Chains in Freight Transport Modeling”

11:20-12:20 セッション4:直接・間接効果 (Direct and Indirect Effects)
Euijune Kim (Seoul National University)
「鉄道整備が地域経済に及ぼす影響：鉄道・高速道路ネットワークのマイクロシミュレーションを利用した空間一般均衡アプローチ」
“Impact of Railroad Investments on Regional Economies: an Approach of Spatial CGE Model with a Microsimulation Module of Railroad and Highway Networks”

石倉 智樹 (東京首都大学)
「多国多地域型応用一般均衡モデルと国際・国内交通基盤整備の評価」
Tomoki Ishikura (Tokyo Metropolitan University)
“Transnational Interregional CGE Model and Assessment of International and Intranational Transport Development”

12:30-14:00　昼食

14:00-15:00 セッション5:災害マネジメント1(Disaster Management I)
奥山 恭英 (北九州市立大学)
「阪神淡路大震災後の神戸経済」
Yasuhide Okuyama (University of Kitakyushu)
“Rise and Fall of the Kobe Economy from the 1995 Earthquake”

山崎雅人（名古屋大学）
「自然災害による経済被害評価のための多地域動学応用一般均衡モデル」
Masato Yamazaki (Nagoya University)
“A multi-regional dynamic CGE model for assessing the economic impacts of natural disasters”

15:20-16:20 セッション6:災害マネジメント2 (Disaster Management II)
Olga Ivanova (PBL, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency)
「EU圏域における異常気象による間接被害評価のための空間応用一般均衡モデル」
“Using EU-wide SCGE model for the assessment of indirect impacts of past climate extreme events”

織田澤 利守（神戸大学）
「産業の過剰集積による災害脆弱性と交通減災施策」
Toshimori Otazawa (Kobe University)
“ Industrial Location and Vulnerability to Natural Hazards”

16:40-17:10 Closing Remarks

The 4th International Seminar of Committee of Infrastructure Planning and Management, JSCE in FY2015
2015年度土木計画学研究委員会 第4回国際セミナー（通算 第113回国際セミナー）

第4回国際研究BinNセミナー(BinN International Research Seminar #4)
“Dynamic modeling based on bounded rationality to understand diversifying travel behavior”

Host：
JSPS Kaken S/A by Kuwahara, M.(Tohoku Univ) and Hato, E.(UT)

The 4th International BinN Research Seminar “Dynamic modeling based on bounded rationality to understand diversifying travel behavior” will be held on Saturday June 13th 2015. As keynote speakers, we will invite Dr. Theo Arentze from Eindhoven University of Technology and Prof. Morikawa from Nagoya University. Dr. Arentze is currently doing research on dynamic activity-based modeling involving human cognition and learning. In this seminar, the keynote lectures will focus on bounded rationality in individual decision making, and its implications for policy making. In addition, two invited researchers will discuss new approaches to disaggregate behavioral modeling.

Summary:
Although much progress has been made over the years, the basis of current transport models is still the rational-agent model. This traditional view is regarded to lead to numerous biases in the description of human behavior. In this seminar, new approaches to travel behavior modeling based on bounded rationality are discussed, particularly focusing on how to accurately represent the decision making context and process. In addition, this seminar aims at discussing about methods for integrating new data and technologies into models.

Program：
Date: June 13th (Sat.) 2015, 1:30 pm – 5:00 pm
Venue: Room. 429 at Faculty of Engineering Bldg. 14, The University of Tokyo (Hongo Campus)

1:30 pm – 2:30 pm
Keynote Lecture 1: “The role of bounded rationality in travel choice behavior and implications for transport modeling”
Theo Arentze (Eindhoven University of Technology)
* This lecture’s abstract and Dr. Connors brief bio can be found below.

2:45 pm – 3:30 pm
Keynote Lecture 2: “Bounded Rationality in Travel Behavior Modeling”
Takayuki Morikawa (Nagoya University)

3:40 pm – 4:20 pm
Research Presentation 1
“Modeling shopping behavior in a neighborhood with endogenous representation of retail attractiveness”
Makoto Chikaraishi (Hiroshima University)

4:20 pm – 5:00 pm
Research Presentation 2
“Choice set generation of pedestrian route choice using data distribution of walking behavior in urban space”
Sachiyo Fukuyama (National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Management)

After party:
After party will probably take place around the University of Tokyo in the evening.

Application：oyama[at]bin.t.u-tokyo.ac.jp (mail to Yuki OYAMA)
Free to attend
The symposium is open to public.
* You can see information about past seminars here.

Title & Abstract
“The role of bounded rationality in travel choice behavior and implications for transport modeling”
Understanding people’s activity-travel behaviour is critical for effective policy making in urban and transport planning. Traditionally, transport models play an important role as a tool for forecasting and policy evaluation. Although much progress has been made over the years, the basis of current transport models is still the rational-agent model. Recent experimental research in psychology and behavioural economics show that this traditional view on behaviour is severely misguided. Numerous biases, which stem from heuristics people use in judgment and decision making, have been revealed. In the presentation I discuss what the known biases in (travel) choice behaviour are, what there implications are for policy making and how they can be taken into account in new approaches to travel behaviour modelling. I argue that a prerequisite for incorporating bounded rationality in transport models is that the current cross-sectional basis is replaced by a longitudinal, dynamic approach. First steps in this direction have recently been made and are supported by new GPS-based survey technologies which allow collection of activity-travel behavior data for longer periods of time. Although dynamic models offer appealing new perspectives, they also raise new issues when it comes to implementation in large-scale simulation systems and application in practice. Only recently the new approach is being explored and experience to date is limited to small-scale prototype systems. I will review approaches in the area of dynamic activity-based models for large-scale micro-simulation and discuss theoretical and computational issues as well as first experiences.

Brief Bio:
Dr. Theo Arentze is associated professor of Urban Planning at the Eindhoven University of Technology. His research interests include activity-based modelling, discrete choice modelling, agentbased modelling, human cognition/learning, and traveller information systems for application in transportation and urban planning. The main focus of his research is to increase behaviour realism in models of spatial choice behaviour of individuals and households in urban environments. The results of his research find application in large-scale simulation systems of urban processes. An example is the Albatross model which has defined a new state-of-the-art in travel demand modelling. He is involved as principle researcher, supervisor or project leader in a constant stream of PhD, Postdoc and EU projects on these topics. He is member of the editorial board of several international peerreviewed journals and acts as an ad-hoc reviewer and program committee member for many journals, conferences and research foundations in transportation, planning, geography and consumer research.