Prof. John Andrew BLACK

土木計画学研究委員会 平成20年度第11回国際セミナーのご案内

東北大学東北アジア研究センター客員教授John Andrew BLACK 先生を東京にお招きし,国際セミナーを開催致します.

講師:John Andrew BLACK 先生(東北大学東北アジア研究センター客員教授)
日時:2009年3月16日(月) 16:00~17:30
司会:花岡伸也 (東京工業大学 准教授)

東京工業大学 大学院理工学研究科 国際開発工学専攻
TEL/FAX 03-5734-3468

The global problems of urbanization at increasingly low densities in car-dependent cities in well documented. A common policy response by urban governments to achieve more sustainable cities is to increase densities and achieve more compact cities, as for example in Japan. In the policy cycle, where alternative urban forms with differing spatial patterns of homes and workplaces and transport systems are evaluated, the accessibility patterns to employment and the O-D flows of commuters and resulting person (or vehicle) kilometres of travel are key performance indicators of social and economic sustainability, respectively. Spatial modelling, or accessibility modelling and trip distribution modelling, are the technical underpinnings of these types of policy analysis.
The presenter, and his academic colleagues and students, have researched these two areas of spatial modelling since 1968 and this seminar will summarize some of the key theoretical debates and practical results from this research. The originality of these contributions in the field of spatial modelling can be verified by referring to Erlander and Stewart’s book on the gravity model and its extensions where the presenter’s name appears in a table on significant advances made, bracketed together with such luminaries as Sir Isaac Newton and Sir Alan Wilson (at a time when the presenter was a doctoral candidate), and that the fact that the translation of Urban Transport Planning into Chinese in 1987 was the first time accessibility had been introduced to Chinese transport planners.
The seminar on theory and modelling covers: the equivalence of the gravity model and mathematical programming; behavioral patterns of commuting as represented by the inverse of Stouffer’s hypothesis of intervening opportunities that we call preference functions; the optimal assignment model of commuter traffic; and Hansen-type accessibility models and equivalences. Remembering that the main theme of the seminar is sustainable cities the empirical and practical applications of such models in policy analysis are introduced with examples. The dual variables in the optimal solution are in fact point to land-use solutions for more optimal urban form or priorities for investment to increase link capacities on a network. Gravity models and intervening opportunity models are developed, calibrated, and analyzed for goodness of fit before applying them forecast the travel implications of urban release areas, and how transport infrastructure such as metros can induce longer commutes. The preference functions and optimal assignment problem can quantify trip length changes (and hence VKT) from re-arranging homes and workplaces into different spatial configurations.
Finally, challenges of a more sustainable city such as Sydney, Australia are introduced and recent research that is an integrated modelling framework on a GIS platform with triple bottom line performance indicators built around accessibility to homes and to workplaces, embodied energy and greenhouse gas emissions.